I just got an inquiry from a client, and rather than just answer it in private, I thought why not share my thoughts here, because you might find them interesting. Its a little early for a predictions post, but I can follow up later. Why only 9 trends? Because the list isn’t finished and you’re bound to suggest some good ones! 😉
Q: Can you talk to technology and innovation trends for the IT industry, business model changes and any other challenges that you think will continue or develop in the coming year.
- Ubiquitous analytics. In 2010 business intelligence will become less about the power user, and more about democratised access to the ad hoc query. In memory databases will underpin the trend.
- Location, location, location: the new frontier in app dev is location-aware applications and services, for internal, asset and service management, and B2C.
- Which underpins a new wave of mobile services as smart phones become pervasive. Augmented Reality will begin to make a mark in the mobile space. Initial experiences in Europe are likely to be in augmented tourism next summer – where you point your phone at a building and it shows you the associated wikipedia entry.
- Greener business processes through deeper instrumentation, more effective automation and orchestration. Smart Grids, LessWater, LessCoal etc. Resource footprint reduction will be a megatrend from here on in. See IBM’s Smarter Planet.
- Google will significantly ramp up enterprise efforts – notably in sales, but also ecosystem partnerships with the likes of Deloitte and the other Big SIs.
- Hybrid Cloud and On Premise models for the enterprise. Hybrid is now just the reality of how we get things done. Just as open source began as a fringe activity, but captured the mainstream, so SaaS and Cloud are increasingly just an economic and technical reality. Cloud doesn’t replace on premise, it augments it.
- That said, the Big Cloud Backlash will be in full effect in 2010, after all the hype in 2009.
- SOA without the SOA. The hard work done by Oracle, SAP and others will begin to bear fruit. Not in terms of the acronyms loved by Architecture Astronauts such as XML Web Services, WSDL, UDDI and other acronyms – but the componentisation of application suites into more modular services makes them far more amenable to web-based integration.
- A big upswing in enterprise demerger activity…. notably in financial services. See today’s EU-led banking announcements, for example. Financial services companies that took major state bailouts are going to be split up. The Great Unbundling offers significant opportunities, but also threats, for technology providers.