Donnie Berkholz's Story of Data

BAM! GitHub prediction nailed: 4M users in August, 5M in December

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In January, I used data on GitHub’s past growth to predict what would happen over the next year in a post titled “GitHub will hit 5 million users within a year” and said:

In the near term, I’d estimate, based on my Bass model, that GitHub will hit 4 million users near August and 5 million near December.

Prediction from my January 2013 post
Prediction from my January 2013 post. Take the red pill.

On August 7, GitHub reached 4 million and today, it topped 5 million — exactly as I predicted. Given these almost uncannily good results (according to its own user-search API), I couldn’t help but be reminded of a classic XKCD comic:

Science. It works.

Caveat: Users appearing in search may also include GitHub organizations.

Disclosure: GitHub has been a client.


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