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The End of the iPhone Bubble: Too Bad, So Sad

July 5th, 2007:

Analyst estimates for iPhone sales in its first weekend run as high as 700,000 units, beating many investors’ expectations, and some now expect the momentum to continue. The device went on sale last Friday.

July 24th, 2007:

AT&T—the iPhone’s exclusive carrier—said it activated 146,000 iPhones on June 29 and 30, a number that disappointed investors following some analyst forecasts that Apple would sell 500,000 or more iPhones in its first weekend.

The news interrupted a steady rise in Apple’s stock price that started with the iPhone’s release. The 18 percent surge generated $18 billion in shareholder wealth.

On Tuesday, Apple shares fell $8.81, or more than 6 percent, to $134.89, wiping out more than $7 billion of Apple’s market value.

Does this mean the price will go down by July 2008 when my Verizon (hate them!) contract is up? Plz advice.

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Categories: The Analyst Life.

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2 Responses

  1. I agree that the numbers shared by Apple today (and AT&T yesterday) are nowhere near the high estimates shared by the financial analyst community. However, remember that Apple and AT&T did not include Sunday sales (July 1st), while the financial analysts included Sunday in projections. Clearly, Friday and Saturday would have much higher sales than Sunday, but it's going to account for tens of thousands more units and activations (but not 100k).

  2. Indeed, the fact that the numbers were just two days was weird.

    The main thing I thought was funny was how wildly the 3 numbers (700,000, 500,000 then 146,000) differed. It's sort of like, "hey, what's a few 100,000 between friends?" 😉