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Is Open Source Innovative?

In making the case that the window for Linux “worldwide domination” in the mobile space has elapsed – its role as the foundation of the open source Android platform notwithstanding – Forrester analyst Mike Gualtieri argues that open source isn’t fundamentally innovative.

Open source never seems to be the innovator. Instead, it seems to disrupt pricing power for established technologies.

There are numerous counterexamples to this; my analyst colleague from the 451 Group Rachel Chalmers cites Unix, others the underlying protocols of the internet and I myself would point to the more recent work that browser teams like Chrome and Mozilla are doing or the pre-Cambrian explosion currently occurring in the non-relational database market. But superficial questions like “can open source innovate” obscure real, fundamental changes in the way that software is being developed today. Changes that are important.

The fact is that neither open source nor proprietary development is intrinsically innovative. The availability of source code has no real bearing on how unique the underlying ideas contained within it may be. What people mean when they say open source cannot innovate is that the profit motive, or more accurately profit models, associated with proprietary software development create greater incentives to innovate.

Which may or may not be true; my own view is that attitudes towards monetization of software generally appear to be somewhat cyclical. Tracing the history of software revenue models from IBM to Microsoft to Google to Facebook, attitudes towards the importance of software as the primary revenue mechanism come full circle [coverage].

In any event, the profit motive is only an incentive for innovation for software that is written to be sold. Which a great deal of software today was not, originally.

What does the following list of projects have in common?

  • Cassandra
  • Git
  • Hadoop
  • jQuery
  • Memcached
  • MongoDB
  • Rails

The answer is that none of them were originally written for purpose of sale. Unlike the Oracle database or Windows, these projects – all of which have achieved mainstream success – were written not to be sold but to solve a problem.

This inverts the traditional software startup model, in which a market opportunity is identified and solutions are built towards it.

The more common software development path today is reverse engineering projects from existing solutions. Rails, the framework built by 37 Signals, was a byproduct of the construction of their primary SaaS products (one reason their founders recommend selling your same). Git was written by Linus Torvalds to replace BitKeeper in managing changes to the Linux source tree. 10Gen, the authors of MongoDB, were originally a Platform-as-a-Service company, not a database vendor. Cassandra was built by Facebook to manage their Inbox. Memcached was written by Danga for Livejournal. Hadoop was written to build Yahoo’s search index. And so on.

That many of these technologies have been commercialized after the fact changes nothing about the substance of the original idea. The history clearly demonstrates that the incentives for software innovation may vary widely. The acceleration of this extracted-software model is not entirely attributable to the commercialization of the internet, but certainly that provoked substantial adaptation – much of what we consider innovative in the software infrastructure space has come from the web – while enabling would be sellers of these technologies by making marketing, sales and customer acquisition more efficient.

The reality is that the nature of how, where and why software is developed has fundamentally changed. There are many reasons to develop software. What the incentive is for a given project, and what that dictates with respect to the development model employed, is likely to say less about whether the software is innovative than the nature of the problem it is intended to solve.

Innovation is a function of incentive, not the software development model.

by-sa

Categories: Open Source.

The Age of Data Rolls On: Adding Third Party Data to RedMonk Analytics

RedMonk Analytics

Ideas come from data.” – Steven Levitt, author of Freakonomics

We built RedMonk Analytics a year ago to provide the best source of developer trends in the world. We began by starting with what we controlled, mining our own data byproducts for insight. Having published thousands of articles on developer related topics over the past nine years, we built a system that watched what developers did with same. This data we then filtered for noise, mined it for patterns, then served it up to our users.

Our typical user is someone intent on better understanding what what developers were interested in and asking about, in answering questions like “How popular is Node.js, really?” While we’ve incorporated in a variety of third party data sources, however, from Infochimps’ Trstrank data to Del.icio.us and Twitter metrics, RedMonk Analytics has been primarily about the data that we generate. Or more accurately, the data our developer audience generates by interacting with us.

That RedMonk-heavy data bias ends today. With our latest and biggest RedMonk Analytics feature drop to date, we are now able incorporate data from any source, provided it can be formatted as a spreadsheet.

Some of the data currently pouring into the system comes from our own research; it’s information that we have curated or collected from outside sources. Examples include programming language framework traction taken from the data mining we’ve done on Hacker News, or our programming language tiers that are based in turn on GitHub and StackOverflow statistical correlation analysis we did. Or maybe it’s just presenting research and development costs for technology vendors.

But we are also hard at work inserting data obtained directly from commercial and non-profit third parties like Black Duck and the Eclipse Foundation.

RedMonk Analytics is about providing you with the best possible picture of developer wants and needs; and if you want to do check the source for more detailed investigation, everything’s attributed, branded and linked. Which is why more and more commercial organizations are talking to us about the data they have that they’re not using, how to begin leveraging it and what they’d like to share with us.

For our users, present and future, we hope you enjoy our ever expanding library of developer related datasets. This should help you make better decisions, whether you’re in marketing, strategy or are a developer trying to make the case for a preferred technology. We’ve got data in here on everything from Flash vs HTML5 to cloud platform traction to programming language commit histories.

If it’s about developers, we either have it, or we’ll do our best to get it.

What’s in it for Users?

We believe that we’re building the most complete, quantitative source of developer related trends and behaviors anywhere. So to the extent that you care about what developers are doing, this product should interest you.

RedMonk Analytics will be continually adding new data sources from our research and from third parties, ensuring that the developer picture gets ever better and more comprehensive over time. Some data will give you historical perspective; other sources will be up to the minute.

All will help you make better decisions in your technical strategy, your developer engagement, your community and partnership strategy and your business. Interested in subscribing? Ping us analytics @ redmonk.com.

What’s in it for Data Partners?

Black Duck is a perfect example of how we work with commercial data partners. Black Duck is in the business of providing management and governance services around open source software. They are not, generally, in the business of mining their data for insights about developers generally. They are, however, possessors of a wealth of related data. And while Black Duck’s not in the business of developer research, we are.

Which is one area in which we’ve been working with the company, helping to glean insights from their their data, the output of which has been projects such as our joint webinar.

From Black Duck’s perspective, then, we’re taking interesting little snapshots of their data, which help round out our developer picture, showcasing all of the interesting data that they have at the same time. Throw in the fact that RedMonk Analytics is effectively another channel for them, and it’s the basis for a good relationship.

Have interesting data, and want to know more? Great, we’ve got the slides for you.

Showcase Your Data w/ RedMonk Analytics
View more presentations from sogrady

What this means for RedMonk

When James and I founded RedMonk in 2002 – that’s right, we’ll be ten next year – we made the conscious decision to “not do” numbers. Not because we didn’t want to, but because we didn’t think that anybody had good numbers about the audience we cared about – developers – and their tools. It was relatively easy to determine how many x86 servers Dell shipped per quarter; it was – and still is – impossible to tell how many times MySQL was downloaded in a given day.

But over the past few years, we’ve been able to increasingly tap into a variety of data sources that serve as a proxy for measurement. We might not be able to tell you how many times MySQL’s been downloaded in a given year, but we can tell you how frequently it’s being discussed relative to alternatives in a given community. And so on.

This is, as far as we’re concerned, the future: blending high broad and diverse quantitative data analysis with our traditional qualitative advice. This is why I went back to school to learn statistics, why we optimized for this training in our hiring process, and why we built this system for us and for you.

This is the new RedMonk, where we heart data. If you do too, we should talk.

by-sa

Categories: Analytics, Data, RedMonk Miscellaneous.

Meet the New Monk: Donnie Berkholz

If you give me someone who’s nice and who’s passionate, I can teach them everything else. I don’t care what school you went to, I don’t care where you worked before. If you give me someone with those two traits, they will nine out of 10 times be a great success in the company.” – Andy Lansing

Even for companies that do it well, hiring is an inefficient process. And as a company that hires but rarely, RedMonk possesses no special expertise in the area. Our biggest advantage is that we’re able to think about the process creatively. We aren’t restricted to hiring an established analyst, for example; Cote was a developer of IT management products when he came to us.

We hire those who we think will become good analysts, period. Which requires passion. And for our own sake, we look for people we get along with. Everything else is negotiable.

That said, hiring someone who’s nice and passionate and has a Ph.d. in addition to deep expertise in your field doesn’t hurt. Enter Donnie Berkholz, the newest Monk.

Monktoberfest attendees will know him as our closing speaker – a session that got rave reviews. We are hiring Donnie away from the Mayo Clinic, where he’s currently a Research Fellow. While he’s spent the bulk of his professional career as a scientist, he’s got long term exposure to technology, having been deeply involved in the Gentoo Linux project as a developer and council member since 2003. He’s also been a contributor to X.org since 2005, and has administered Google Summer of Code efforts for both.

Donnie’s more than an open source expert, however. As anyone who’s followed his constructive criticism of our analyses is aware, he’s got deeper statistical training than I have and has legitimate programming skills. And if you follow him on Twitter I think you’ll find his insight on everythng from cloud to mobile to big data more than up to the RedMonk standard.

He can also write, and not just for academic journals. His minor in journalism has been put to good use as a regular contributor to LWN.net, the highly regarded open source news source.

With us, he’ll be covering the same broad spectrum of topics that we cover, and with his background as a researcher, we expect his transition to the world of analysis to be smooth. It’s certain to be less complicated than “Applying structure-based drug design to the moonlighting enzyme dihydrolipoamide dehydrogenase to target detrimental oxidative stress,” anyway, the focus of one of his 2010 papers (PDF link).

As a former user of Gentoo, Donnie and I have a long history together, having met for the first time at OSCON in 2005. I’ve always had a strong appreciation for his work, and I’m thrilled that he’ll be working on our behalf as of December 1st.

To our clients, we’re happy to schedule introductory calls for you as soon as he’s officially on board. In the meantime, please join me in welcoming Donnie, and if you’re curious, see our interview with him from the conference.

by-sa

Categories: People, RedMonk Miscellaneous.

A Brief History of the Monktoberfest

The crowd gathers for #Monktoberfest in the Portland Maine
(photo courtesy the rab)

As far as I’m aware, the Monktoberfest is the only conference that began its life as a punchline. It became more than that because the attendees wanted it to. It was, to borrow a metaphor from the ITSM guys, Field of Dreams in reverse: you wanted it, so we built it.

Here’s how that happened. February 17th, I tossed out a throwaway line on Twitter, kidding. None of the people bombarding me with @ replies, email, IMs, and voicemail, however, thought it was funny. They were very serious, and very persistent.

kidding

So we looked into it. First, asking the Lion’s Pride if we could shut them down for an evening. Next, scouting potential conference locations. Then, speakers. Rinse, lather, repeat.

Seven months and nineteen days later, we were all together at ten in the morning in the downtown Portland Public Library holding new smelling t-shirts.

The volume of reactions to the day have been, frankly, humbling. All the more so because credit for the event rightfully belongs to everyone who pushed us to make it happen, and everyone who took a few days out their schedule to be with us.

What we set out to build for you was something different. There are too many conferences already; there’s no point to running a conference for the sake of running a conference. We wanted to rethink at a fundamental level what a conference was for and about.

Here’s how we did that.

The Draw

We began with the beer, of course, as the name implies. We’re fortunate to have one of the world’s best and highest rated beer venues here. But that meant that would be attendees would have to come to Portland, ME rather than us bringing the event to them in Boston, New York or San Francisco, as is more common. We decided that was a plus, because we wanted this show to be populated by people who actively wanted to be there, rather than those who might attend out of convenience because the venue’s a ten minute drive from San Jose or similar. And if people got the opportunity to see that Maine generally and Portland specifically are a beautiful place to live and a great place to work, so much the better.

The Content

But you need more than beer to hold a conference. You need content. Believing that some of the best content at any conference is the hallway track, we optimized for that. Start time was 10 AM, so that attendees could enjoy themselves at our welcome event the night before, and self-organize for breakfast the next day if they chose. Talks, meanwhile, were single track and loosely scheduled. This meant that we were all having the same conversation when there were talks, and that there was time in between to discuss and dissect.

The Theme

For our theme we chose social. Not as in something narrow and prescriptive like social media, but social as a broader trend. Because if it’s true that software is eating the world, it’s equally true that most software is social these days. GitHub’s changed the way we develop software, permanently. Untappd – the official social network of the Monktoberfest, and a speaker at the event – has changed the way people drink, and where they drink from. And they have the data to prove it.

And so on. We didn’t want to create an Everybody conference, or a Specific Agenda conference: the Monktoberfest was built from day one as a Welcome to Our Home Conference. We hope everyone felt that way.

The Swag

Instead of giving away the usual conference bag, we gave our attendees glasses. The t-shirts were a bit traditional, admittedly, but they went over well for all of that.

The Website

Thought went into the website as well. By regular conference organizer standards, our simple WordPress instance was primitive. But we tried to actively think about what attendees would want to know, rather than what we wanted to broadcast to them. Hence a travel page that linked to NY Times reviews of Portland and an FAQ that told you when to arrive and depart and who should attend.

The Food

We go to a great many conferences, and the food is more often than not poor. Which isn’t a big deal for me, as I’m not a food person, but if you can improve it for those that are, why wouldn’t you? Why not try and turn what is usually an afterthought into a feature? So lobster rolls and clam chowder it was for lunch, with vegetarian wraps for those that who aren’t meat eaters. Granted this was easier for us to do in Maine from a costs perspective, but that’s just one more reason for us to leverage this non-traditional destination.

The Sponsors

What we offered our sponsors was simple: exposure and, at higher spend levels, a few free tickets. We weren’t allowing product talks – that was, in fact, the only rule we had for our speakers – because we didn’t believe they were a fit for this audience. There are other shows to pitch your product; that wasn’t why we were here. That Red Hat’s OpenShift project, deCarta, Basho, Splunk, Zendesk and Crowd Favorite shared that vision with us, and didn’t insist on being given their fifteen minutes of fame at our show is to their credit, in our opinion. They were the reason we were able to do everything we were able to do.

The Audience

The size of the Monktoberfest was as much about embracing constraints as planning. We worked backwards from the capacity of our venue, and the result was the type of intimate conference that we’d hoped for, or so the attendees told us. Some things just work better at a small scale; this is especially true of things that involve people. Discussions ran well over their allotted time because people were asking so many questions, and the questions were all good. This is the type of problem that, from the perspective of a conference organizer, you want to have.

We’ve had a few people tell us they met more people at this conference than any other that they’ve attended. Even better, the staff at the various venues reported that they enjoyed themselves nearly as much as we did, and that everyone was polite both to them and to the other attendees. This is a testament to the quality of the people we drew.

The Credit

The credit for this event belongs everywhere else. What we did best was find good people, then get out of their way.

Logistically, Anna Melbin and Stu Brydon did a wonderful job before and at the show keeping things running smoothly; my life would have been miserable without them. My wife Kate has likewise been doing an immense amount of coordination work in the run up to the event while juggling her various other professional obligations, and things like the glasses were her idea. Marcia Chappell, who runs RedMonk operations, has been doing yeoman’s work for the past few weeks, coordinating with everything from the bus company to the venue. Rori at Novare Res took great care of us Wednesday night, and Lurie Sprague-Palino and her team at Seacoast catering did an excellent job, as always, with our Maine-themed lunch.

And as for Leigh and Ryan Travers and their team at the Lion’s Pride, as Joe Brockmeier put it, “I’d write more about it, but I think it might be cruel to those who didn’t attend to go into detail.” All that you need to know about their effort level was that they drove nine and a half hours to procure one of the beers for our tasting. Ryan and Leigh are among the best in the world at what they do, and we couldn’t be happier to share that with everyone.

On the content front, James said it best:

monktoberfest-speakers

To a person, our speakers were excellent, and had put in real effort to craft their talks. Matt LeMay, for example, had the Bit.ly team run a computationally expensive query just for his talk. The results spoke for themselves, as they did for each of our speakers.

Whatever success we’ve had is ultimately due to the people who came together to make the Monktoberfest happen. Our sponsors, our attendees and everyone who’s encouraged us along the way. Take a bow, all of you: this was your conference as much or more than it was ours.

The Blame

While we had surprisingly few real hiccups given that it was our first time running an event, the things that went wrong are my responsibility. Not having power strips strung through the venue, for example. And as the otherwise very kind ReadWriteWeb review dinged us, our speaker diversity was poor. It’s true that we did try and get three different female speakers, only to be foiled by scheduling, but we still could have tried harder on that front. That’s my fault, and something we’ll try to rectify if we do it again. Which brings us to…

The Future

Everyone has questions about the prospect for future Monktoberfests, from which I infer that they enjoyed this one. For me personally, however, it’s a lot like asking the mother who just gave birth about plans for her next child. Conferences are an immense amount of work, and this one was no exception. So I need to recharge the batteries a bit before I think about the next show, though James is already talking up a London version.

Like the original, however, future conferences are likely to be a function of demand: if you want it, we’ll build it for you.

On behalf of everyone at RedMonk, we thank you.

by-sa

Categories: Conferences & Shows.