An era of uncertainty

In mid-January of this year I spoke on a 2024 predictions panel hosted by the excellent folks at Tidelift. The topic was open source software security, and after much brilliant discussion from my fellow panelists, my concluding takeaway was that 2024 would be “a year of uncertainty”: uncertainty around new regulations, around who would be charged with figuring out how to follow them, around finding folks with the requisite skills (or training paths) and resources to do so.

As 2024 progressed, the phrase “year of uncertainty” struck me as increasingly applicable to the tech industry more broadly. It applied to uncertainty around generative AI and what it would mean for how we build and use software. Likewise to the waves of layoffs we’ve seen in the tech industry, with so many folks–early career devs and developer relations professionals especially–looking for jobs and trying to figure out what skills they can acquire to give themselves an edge. For my academic colleagues in both the humanities and computer science, there has also been uncertainty around the role all of this would play in how to prepare their students for what comes next.

I had an idea for a “year of uncertainty” write-up back in early June, and while I chatted with my colleague Rachel Stephens during an onsite she helped me think through some additional elements of uncertainty facing us during the (at that point) half-spent year. Many of them relate to–but have consequences beyond–the tech industry and academic spaces I frequent:

• The viability of open source
• The collapse of tech Twitter and decentralization of alternative platforms
• Geopolitical data sovereignty
• The next vulnerability or security disaster
• Resources in general, but especially
  • Access/distribution of GPUs
  • Cloud/on-prem shifts (and shifts back)
  • How we power all the things (and the ecological impact of doing so)
• A new normal of extreme weather
• Global wars
• The political and economic climate, both in the U.S. (where I reside) and abroad

My plans for the piece were set aside when I had to address some health issues after my very next trip, (which brings me to yet another aspect of uncertainty in 2024: when does the next public health crisis hit, and how do we manage that when many of us are still processing the last one)? After I recovered, I jumped straight into a whirlwind of planes and conferences and conversations, and before I knew it, the 2024 U.S. general election was upon us.

Throughout the year I had been reading about stock market volatility and performance during U.S. presidential election years, as well as various pieces of advice discussing election year risk and how to navigate it from a business perspective. This all reminded me of an adage I have heard from folks in manufacturing that during a U.S. presidential election year, many hesitate to hire and spend until after the election, because they want to wait to see who wins and what larger policies will prevail. It doesn’t matter who wins, the adage says, just that everyone wants to know what they are dealing with before they commit their resources. In other words–per the adage–election years are always uncertain, but then everything settles after the results are in.

Yet, with the results of the 2024 election in, the pervasive feeling in the air–regardless of one’s position on said results–is anything but settled, as the next administration promises sweeping changes poised to affect not just tech and taxes but also foreign policy, immigration, trade, healthcare, and education (to name a few). In case it needs to be said, for a large portion of the population, many of these potential changes are not just unsettling; they are terrifying.

The day after the election, I had an early morning doctor’s appointment (because in 2024 when a specialist has an opening, you take it). Towards the end my doctor dropped the phrase “new era of uncertainty” to describe what the next four years (at least) will be like for healthcare professionals. I do not envy my doctor the task of navigating this new era. But also I am a writer and that phrase was too on point to pass up.

Looking back, I stand by my assessment that 2024 was and is about uncertainty. What I got wrong was the duration. The uncertainty did not end with the election, it will not end with a calendar change, and in truth it probably started way before the beginning of the year. In the tech industry and beyond, we are already in the midst of an “era of uncertainty,” and we will have to figure our way through the best we can.