Via Rick Sherman comes news that IBM, Oracle, and Microsoft continue to make like kids in a candy store where database revenues are concerned. He calls out these takeaways:
“The database market is still expanding at double digit gains, 14.3% from 2005-2006. Despite a lot of people’s feelings that this is a mature market there continues to be a healthy environment.
The top three vendors remain the same from last year (and from the last several years). They are: Oracle 44.4%, IBM 21.2% and Microsoft 18.6%.
The top three vendors control almost three-quarters of the market.”
Which is nice. But Sherman then makes the serious mistake of falling into the revenue counting game. You see IDC is not bad at tracking revenues but it has no way of counting adoption. So when Rick says:
“Open source databases will gain more usage and further expand the overall database marketplace (just as Microsoft is), however, the rate of adoption may not be significant for a while.”
He is unfortunately completely missing what’s really going on out there. MySQL useage is exploding. In many cases its being used as a bucket of bits, rather than a relational database management system. But check out 95% of Web 2.0 Services (that number is plucked out of thin air, feel free to challenge it) and they are using MySQL. Then look at look at companies socialised to open source. MySQL is everywhere. Would IBM really be running MySQL alongside DB2 if they weren’t seeing exponential growth across the open source platfrom? No. Way.
There is currently no way to accurately track open source useage, where code distribution is separated from service contracts. That is the bottom line. Why do IDC’s numbers look the same as last year? Because they still can’t track the real growth in the market.
“The rate of adoption may not be significant for a while…” come on Rick… look around you.
Disclosure: IBM is a patron. Microsoft and MySQL are supporters. Oracle is in our sights.